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		<title>中国央行拓宽存款保证金缴存范围 或冻结9000亿元人民币流动性</title>
		<description><![CDATA[经济



2011年08月29日 14:08 

<span class="readmore"><a href="http://www.whool.net/archives/1691" title="中国央行拓宽存款保证金缴存范围 或冻结9000亿元人民币流动性">Read More: 586 Words Totally</a></span>]]></description>
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		<title>中国的红色警报(财新）</title>
		<description><![CDATA[2010年3月23日GMO发表的White Paper认为中国已经显现出显著的投机狂热的特征。历史上著名的泡沫的形成与破裂的经验凸显出中国目前的脆弱性。

阅读下载地址：http://pragcap.com/chinas-red-flags，&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160; http://dl.dbank.com/s0v143liu1

识别投机狂热与金融危机

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		<title>A QE2 Retrospective in Pictures</title>
		<description><![CDATA[The Federal Reserve‘s second round of so-called quantitative easing comes to an end today, after $600 billion in Treasury-bond purchases over the past eight months.

Chairman Ben Bernanke‘s stated goals: lower mortgage rates to boost housing, reduce corporate bond rates to encourage investment and raise stock prices to increase confidence and spending. Markets responded soon after the program was first hinted at by Mr. Bernanke in an Aug. 27 speech in Jackson Hole, Wyo. But the end goals proved more elusive.

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		<title>六一，木马，N年后</title>
		<description><![CDATA[&#160;



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		<title>中国证监会行政处罚决定书（徐国新）</title>
		<description><![CDATA[&#160;

〔2011〕18号

&#160;&#160; 当事人：徐国新，男，1973年3月出生，住址：浙江省杭州市西湖区转塘镇大诸桥村2之1号。

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		<title>CHINA vs JAPAN 去年是不小心超过，现在？等你休息好再来吧</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Japan's stock market declined nearly 20% in the days immediately following the tragic earthquake that hit the country on March 11th. While Japanese equities have bounced back a bit, the fall allowed China to surpass Japan in terms of percentage of world market cap.

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		<title>铅合约设计的原则&#8211;丁文辉</title>
		<description><![CDATA[铅期货获批以来，迅速得到市场各方的广泛关注。21日，上期所有色金属部高级总监丁文辉就相关热点问题回答了中国证券报记者的提问。    合约设计体现三大原则     中国证券报：铅期货的合约文本已正式公布，相关规则也正在被大家所熟悉。能否介绍一下其创新之处？     丁文辉：设计铅期货合约规则的指导思想是贯彻证监会期货市场监管工作会议“夯实基础，培育机制，加强监管，防范风险，服务实体经济发展”的主线要求，在具体环节上充分体现“以市场化手段促进行业技术进步和提高环保意识，服务实体经济发展”、“适度限制投机、确保风险防控到位”和“促进套期保值、优化管理措施、贴近需求加强监管”三大原则。

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		<title>美国和中国GDP的分省对比</title>
		<description><![CDATA[这个是在经济人上的一个图，大家看看，为什么我们希望被叫做第三世界国家。

Comparing Country’s GDP to US States



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		<title>3.21 HS300 和期货合约 热点图</title>
		<description><![CDATA[周末的工作，呵呵，现在可以出图了。。

 

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		<title>从期指日内波动率来看市场情绪变化(z)</title>
		<description><![CDATA[&#160;

 一、波动率的介绍    波动率已被广泛应用于衍生品定价、金融资产风险管理、投资组合管理等多个领域。对金融市场波动率的估计和预测是近几十年来金融研究领域的重要课题之 一。一般投资者理解的波动率是计算价格或收益率的标准差，这种常用的方法可用来计算历史的波动率。然而作为资产管理者，更希望能对未来资产波动率进行预测 从而进行风险管理。目前对金融资产波动率的描述方法主要有三类：     1、隐含波动率 (Implied Volatility)。在期权定价公式中，现货资产的波动率是计算期权价格的参数之一。通过市场上现存的衍生品价格，倒推出模型中的波动率，称为隐含波 动率，反映了投资者对标的资产未来的预期波动率。如基于S&#38;P500指数期权隐含波动率的芝加哥VIX指数，代表市场对未来30天的市场波动率的 预期。当VIX越高，表示投资者预期后市的价格波动程度将会更加激烈，也同时反映其心理不安的状况。当VIX越低，反映市场参与者预期后市的价格波动会趋 于缓和。因此，VIX又被称为投资者恐慌指标(The Investor Fear Gauge)，也可理解为市场情绪指标。由于我国金融市场暂未推出基于指数的期权衍生品，所以无法计算标的指数的隐含波动率。     2、模型波动率。由于金融资产的波动具有聚集性，Engle(1982)提出用自回归条件异方差ARCH模型对波动率进行刻画，随后关于波动率模型的 扩展和应用发展迅速。目前主要有ARCH类和随机波动率SV类模型，虽然该两种模型采用不同的建模方法，但在刻画波动特性方面都取得了巨大的成功。两者都 需要参数估计、可进行样本外预测，在抽样频率方面，两者适用于使用日间或更低频率的数据。     3、已实现波动率 (Realized Volatility， RV)。由于高频数据具有不同于低频数据的特征，使得在低频领域表现良好的ARCH和SV类模型方法不能直接移植到高频数据。Andersen， Bollerslev(1998)提出使用日内高频股价数据，可以获得对日波动率更精确的描述，并由此建立了一种基于高频股价数据的已实现波动率测度方 法。由于高频数据中蕴含了比低频数据更多的市场波动信息，因此基于高频数据的波动率测度一定是一种更为真实的市场波动描述。已实现波动率的计算不需要复杂 的参数估计方法，无模型、计算简便，在一定条件下是积分波动的无偏估计量，近年来在高频领域中获得了广泛的应用。     随着IT技术的发展，数据记录技术不断提高，采样数据的时间间隔越来越短，使得对日内数据的分析变得普遍。在金融市场中，高频率采集的数据可以分为两 类：高频数据(High Frequency Data)和超高频数据(Ultra-High Frequency Data).     高频数据是指以小时、分钟或秒为采集频率的数据。超高频数据则是指交易过程中实时采集的数据，或称逐笔数据(Tick-by-Tick Data)。高频数据和超高频数据两者之间的最大区别是：前者是等时间间隔的，后者的时间间隔是时变的。目前关于金融高频数据的研究主要集中金融高频数据 统计特征、市场微观结构、交易间隔模型、资产管理等方面。

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		<title>比跳水，日经更疯狂</title>
		<description><![CDATA[这些天最大的兴趣就是看日经早上的折腾，每天早上过来看都是5个点的上下翻腾，很是过瘾，今天好像又是4个跌点的开盘。

这么看起来，比起号称最能折腾的A股，日经的折腾还是略高一筹的，估计是因为他们的大公司占的比例比较大吧。



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		<title>黄金是低风险？那白银总是高风险了！</title>
		<description><![CDATA[The World Gold Council recently issued its Gold Investment Digest for 2010 which provides, among many other interesting data points, a listing of official gold holdings of various countries. Notable highlight in our chart is the fact that the ETF GLD has been the 6th largest holder of gold at the end of 2010 (in case you were wondering what has been driving the price of gold in recent years). 

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		<title>The 10 Huge ETF Stories of 2010 (SCHB, VOO, IAU, RSP, PRF, RWL, DLN, SPY, EPS, REMX, PLTM, LIT, URA)</title>
		<description><![CDATA[The past year was an exciting one for the ETF industry, as assets continued to surge (recently passing the $1 trillion mark), new and innovative products hit the market (now nearly 1,100 U.S.-listed ETPs), and the pipeline continued to fill with exciting ideas and new issuers.

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		<title>套保流程</title>
		<description><![CDATA[1 套期保值的时机选择

什么时候开始套期保值是个重大问题，也是套保的一个难点，实际选择的好坏直接影响到套期保值的绩效，套期保值的实际选择实际上是对沪深300指数的趋势的判断，其中涉及宏观面，政策以及自己和技术指标上的综合考虑

2 确定被套保资产的组合范围，套保期限以及期货合约的选择

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		<title>对冲类产品，还没上路的（z)</title>
		<description><![CDATA[自国投瑞银率先在“一对多”专户产品中加入股指期货投资后，多家基金公司迅速跟上，纷纷推出包含股指期货套利策略在内的专户产品。而这些产品，也常常被媒体冠以“对冲基金”的美名。但中国证券报记者调查后发现，这些所谓的“对冲基金”成立后，在股指期货市场中下单次数寥寥无几，其在股指期货上的偶尔操作，也几乎对产品业绩不构成影响。某基金公司专户总监对此评价称，基金业目前并无运作“对冲基金”的实力，猛打 “股指期货套利”牌，不过是为了产品营销需要而制造的噱头。

两大软肋 

 基金公司在专户市场推出所谓“对冲基金”的热情正日渐高涨，但对于运作该类产品的准备是否充足，多数公司选择了“视而不见”。

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		<title>Q4 2010 Algo Trading ,CME Group</title>
		<description><![CDATA[Only stock index and FX over 50%,not as much as 70%.but this is future,not stock.



source:

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		<title>1914-2006 美国平均工资</title>
		<description><![CDATA[大家说美国赚多少钱，多有钱，看看平均工资就知道了，个人的感觉是这30年就基本没上去过，好消息是，人家不上去，生活倒是更加安定了，稳定压倒一切啊。4W的平均，在NY也就刚刚能活，在乡下，活得很滋润，套用现在流行的，他们的幸福感很高。



&#160;

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		<title>吴健华：期货从业人员的四个发展方向</title>
		<description><![CDATA[各位尊敬的领导、嘉宾，各位女士们、先生们：

大家上午好！很感谢大会给我这个机会，让台湾的业者在今天给大家报告一点经验，作为台股指数出台已经有十六年了，在台湾期货业有期货经纪商、CTM业务，也有期货基金等等，这样的经验规模虽然不是特别的庞大，但是我想可以作为华人地区的先导。我想允许各位给我二十多分钟的时间报告一下经验。

我本人担任期货业务员上来的，做过期货经理实业，还有期货公司的老总，还有策划一些期货方面的业务，在这样的经验里，斗胆在这里给各位做一个报告。

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		<title>200年，美国政府债收益率，还能更低不？</title>
		<description><![CDATA[凡是打仗，收益率都能上去，不过好想ww1和ww2已经很久了，在ww2确定老大地位后，80年代前和苏联的对立拉升了自己，之后收益率开始下降，开始了快30年的高速发展，现在的情况呢？是L还是V，估计应该还是L吧，下不去了，1.25的利率本来就下不去了，除非美国也进入cpi5时代，不过估计是没戏了，人家有我们垫背。

疑问是，我们要面对的是下一战争末？

click for larger chart    

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	<item>
		<title>E-System Portfolio</title>
		<description><![CDATA[E-System Model Portfolio Performance

好像是一个关于周期性的产品，回头再看吧，还没看明白怎么选的

E-System Portfolio Brochure

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