WHOOL! fantastic world 工作，学习，生活

28Sep/090

10 Rules of the Rich

 

1. Give yourself a raise.
10% of your net income should go on auto-deposit into your 401(k),
IRA, health savings account, etc. Period. Stop whining, complaining
or procrastinating. It’s tax deductible. Pay yourself now, or pay
the IRS later. And if you don’t know how to invest, put it in a
FDIC-insured savings or money market account while you educate
yourself.
2. Be charitable.
Tithe 10% to charity. Fuel your favorite cause with your cash and
reap the benefits of helping your community, of networking with
others who have like-minded goals and of the tax write-off! Pay
your favorite charity now, or pay the IRS later. Every rock star,
including Bono, Sting and Mary J. Blige, know the value of
this!
3. Educate yourself, your family and others.
Education is the single highest correlating factor with income. So
invest in your education. Surgeons make more money than gardeners,
and surgeons who have educated themselves about investing make
greater gains than those who invest blindly (or not at all).
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, full-time workers
without a high school diploma earned $465/week on average in June
of 2009, compared to $1,140 for a Bachelor’s Degree, and
$2,130/week (women) to $3,434/week (men) for professionals with a
master’s or higher. Find a way to put money aside for your
education. Typically that means cutting your costs in the basic
needs department. College students might consider sleeping on a
couch for a few years, in order to earn double the income for
life!
4. Have fun.
Here are the goods. Health is wealth. You can’t earn a great living
if you can’t get out of bed. And if you want to really have great
results, you need to be a great team player. So, your time on the
golf course, on the tennis court or on the racetrack means that
you’re going to be more fun to be around – someone whom others want
to interact with and do business with! Exercise is one of the best
things you can do for your health and beauty, and pleasure is a
free endorphin that releases anti-oxidants that keep you youthful
and sexy. Beautiful reasons to have some fun today!

5. Double your pleasure.
Double your fun budget! Make sure that you are taking 10%-20% of
your income for FUN! I take 10% out in cash and spend it until it’s
gone. The other 10% I save up for a year to do something really
adventurous. It makes working so much more pleasurable when I am
anticipating exactly how I’m going to enrich my own life as a
result. (In 2009, I spent a month in Italy!)
6. Stop complaining.
Some people say, "I spend my fun money on my home." That’s cool,
but then stop complaining that you don’t take vacations and start
enjoying your home more. Can you have artist salons, or a front
porch bayou Bluegrass party where someone blows on a jug and
another plays spoons? A barbecue and three-legged race? A monthly
yoga potluck dinner? Make sure that you are enjoying what you own,
otherwise your retail therapy isn’t working!
7. Basic needs must be under 50%, including taxes.
Ha! Think this is impossible? Guess which ethnic group is the
highest income earner in the U.S. in 2009. Before I reveal the
answer, I want to point out that this group was one of the lowest
wage earners in the U.S. at the turn of the last century. How did
one ethnic group rise from the gutter to the palace so quickly? By
focusing on education and dramatically reducing basic needs
expenditures. If two families had to live in a two-bedroom
apartment so that the kids could go to medical school, they did
that. And now, Asian men make a weekly income that is 21% higher
than whites and almost double the weekly income of blacks and
Hispanics. (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics,
July 16, 2009)
8. Think partner, not competitor.
In 2006, Universal Music Group was posturing to sue MySpace and
YouTube for posting their videos free of charge. In June of 2009,
UMG and YouTube announced a new channel, utilizing the YouTube
technical platform and portal. YouTube is the 4th most trafficked
site in the U.S., but UMG has the great artists and videos. Smart
move! Remember back in the 70s when mega-department stores decided
to create the malls! By teaming up to put everything you need in
one place, all of the retail stores benefit. What can you do to
partner up with your competitors and create a win-win for
everyone?
9. Dream bigger.
When John D. Rockefeller went into the oil business, in 1863, no
one dreamed of freeways and that Exxon Mobil would be worth almost
half a trillion dollars. When Google founders Sergey Brin and Larry
Page began perfecting online search, most people were still on
dial-up. When President John F. Kennedy promised to walk on the
moon, it still took a week to mail a letter from New York to San
Francisco. What great dream do you have? What can you do now to
start on the path of creating it?
10. 21 days off the grid.
Stuck in a rut? Got a bad habit that is taking you out at the
knees? 21 days is all you need to create new possibilities. Seven
days is only a vacation from the status quo. Two weeks is a
tease/tiptoe toward the edge of new ideas. 21 days is where new
habits and thought patterns become ingrained. If you have never
been on a 21-day sabbatical, there is no greater or more fun way to
expand your possibilities and your thinking. In fact, I’ve created
a 21-day Walk to Wealth Consciousness coaching call series, which
is FREE for retreat attendees. Call 866.476.7442 to enact a new way
of living for yourself!
So, sing your song… loudly. Dance as if everyone is watching. They
are… (on Facebook. And Twitter. And YouTube. And BlogTalkRadio…)
And become the rock star of your own dream life.
About Natalie Pace:
Natalie Pace, is the author of
Put Your Money Where Your Heart Is and CEO of one of the most
respected, independently owned financial news corporations in the
U.S. She has been ranked as a #1 stock picker from
TipsTraders.com.

Tags:
Filed under: 金融那些事 No Comments
28Sep/090

何不买房？(人渣）

 

我前两天在和谷主算我们房东买房的回报率，我们得出的结论是：不算太差，也不算太高，属于一项比较稳健的投资。请注意，我这里不是指所有的房子，而就是指我和谷主租的房子。

中国的金融市场和美国的差别很大，一个主要的特点是：老百姓即使有了钱，也没有太多的渠道投资。股市基本上还有赌场的特征，债券市场基本上不向个人投资者开放，直接投资实业或者通过非正规金融渠道放贷也不是很多人能够或者敢做的。剩下的投资渠道，基本上就是买房或者存银行了。事实上，中国居民手上的金融资产，还是以银行存款为主。

但，一点简单的算术就不难算出，从回报率看，买房恐怕要比存银行划算多了。

这么说吧，假设你有100万（你可能没有，但是中国有很多人有。而且通常即使一个小家庭没有，算上爹妈老丈人丈母娘，能凑出100万的就不少了。这也是中国的买房者中，一次性付清的购房者比例相当大的一个原因。如果我没有记错数，平均算起来，中国购房者首付占总房款的平均比例基本上在50％左右）。

你可以选择把这100万存在银行，现在5年期定期存款的利率是3.6%，这应该是个人能够拿到最高的存款利率了。然后假设一年的通胀率是2％，这是相当温和的通胀了，那存银行的真实年回报率(剔除通胀的因素)就是大约1.6%。

你也可以选择买一套100万的房。买房的回报率不是那么直接，需要做一些假设。你不用同意我的假设，这里只是一个例子：

首先，不管买了房是自住还是出租，房子都提供了“收入流”。如果是出租，收入流自然就是租金。如果是自住，收入流还是这个房子的租金。因为你享受了这个房子提供的服务，如果你在市场上购买这样的服务，你就要出相应的租金。但你拥有了房子，
所以就省下了你原本需要出的租金，这仍然是你收入的一部分，虽然你没看到。我现在假设房价/租金比是33又1/3，也就是100万的房，一年能租3万块（2500一个月），这个假设恐怕不算特别离谱吧。

其次，我假设，在没有通胀的情况下，房子本身不会升值也不会贬值，租金也不会涨也不会跌。换句话说，如果没有通货膨胀，现在100万的房子，10年后是100万，30年后还是100万，租金也是一样。我个人觉得，这是一个非常保守的假设。当然，你可能会有不同的看法。

最后，我假设租金和房价都会随着通胀一起水涨船高的。假设通胀是2％，那这意味着明年房价会变成102万，租金则变成3万6百一年，换句话说，房子和租金是不会因为通胀而缩水的，房子和租金的真实价值始终不变。这是真实资产的基本特点，就像黄金，大米，不会因为央行印了太多的票子而变得不值钱一样，房子和房子提供服务的价值，也不应该因为央行多印了票子而缩水。

做了这些假设之后，买房的真实年回报率是多少？很简单3/100=3％。

存银行的真实回报率是1.6％，买房的真实回报率是3％，如果有钱，还是买房的回报率高比存银行的回报率高。而如果根据我个人的判断，我这里做的假设，很可能是高估了存银行的回报率（通胀率很可能会高于2％），而低估了买房的回报率（租金可能会涨，房价也有可能会涨，在有通胀的情况下，租金和房价可能会涨的更快，因为人们需要真实资产来保值）。
所以，即便纯粹从赚取正常回报率的角度看，从保值的角度看，很多有闲钱的人算计算计也会觉得买房比存银行划算。这些人未必是想炒房（我上面的假设里，特地假设了房价不会在没有通胀的情况下上涨，也就是炒房的人是不会在我设想的情况下赚钱的），但他们理性的行为也会自动的推高房价。

中国房价让很多人觉得高的原因有很多，现在还要在加上一条：投资渠道缺乏。如果中国能有一个有效的金融市场，能够使得老百姓通过其它渠道投资的回报率达到5％甚至10％（根据各种测算，中国资本的回报率大约是10％左右），那中国房价上涨的压力恐怕要小很多。

关于怎么计算买房的回报率，上文已经说了，我的计算只是提供一个思路，想自己算的人可以修改假设，然后自己计算回报率，这个东西不同的人看法肯定不同。仁者见仁，智者见智了。

但是存款利率和通货膨胀率是比较容易得到的，因此真实回报率也比较容易计算。所以，我就找来了数据，算了一下，做了两幅图。第一副图是1989年以来中国的一年期的真实存款利率（当年的平均一年期名义利率－当年的平均通货膨胀率）。从1989年开始，是因为那是我手头可以找到的最早的数据。从这副图可以很明显的看出，首先中国的真实存款利率在很多年都是负的，换句话说，存款的利息不足以补偿通货膨胀。然后，即使在正的年份，也没有特别正，但是在负的年份可以非常负。第三，2009年的回报率可能会是正的，但是，2007和2008连续两年都是负回报，2009年的通缩是在2007和2008年通胀的基础上才出现的。

我做了一个计算，假设你在1988年底存进银行100块人民币，然后每年都把利息也存进去，最后在2008年把所有的钱一次性取出，这些钱折合成1988年的人民币会值多少钱？我的计算是97块。换句话说，1989年到2008年这二十年里，银行存款的真实回报率是比较接近于0的一个负数。如果只看2000－2008这几年，平均真实回报率也只有0.3（1996-2008为1.4）。从历史记录上看，在前文中假设银行存款1.6的真实回报率，不是太低了，而是太高了。当然，历史并不代表未来。

说真实回报率，可能让很多人觉得不直观，所以我就做了下面这一副图。粉红色的柱子是如果你在1988年底存进银行100块，然后把每年的利息也存进去之后，每年你在银行的余额。1988年的100块，最后到了2008年会变成300块（请注意，2008年的300块，因为通胀的原因，并没有1988年的100块更值钱，前面已经说了，折合成1988年的人民币，2008年的300块只等于97块）。灰色的柱子是一个假想的情形，就是如果银行的利率始终比通胀率高1.6，也就是保证存款的真实回报率能达到1.6。这样1988年的100块，到了2008年就应该是404块。404块要比300块多出34.6％，这就是正的1.6的真实回报率和中国的实际回报率，在20年里拉出的差距。

从历史数据上看，在过去20年的任何一个时点买房，恐怕都比存银行强多了。当然，历史不代表未来。虽然，历史总是会重复自己。

Tags:
Filed under: 碎碎念 No Comments

豆瓣读书

标签云

日志类别

Blog

外汇

工作

金融

最近评论

随便看看

最新文章

管理员