161. In a study of reading habits of Leeville citizens conducted by the University of Leeville, most respondents said they preferred literary classics as reading material. However, a follow-up study conducted by the same researchers found that the type of book most frequently checked out of each of the public libraries in Leeville was the mystery novel. Therefore, it can be concluded that the respondents in the first study had misrepresented their reading habits.
结论是由两次调查的结果得出第一次调查中人们对他们的阅读习惯撒谎.
1 两次调查的样本不一样,一个是市民一个是借书者.
2 图书馆的借书频率不能所民他们撒谎
(1)公共图书馆中古典小说数量少,神秘小说多.所以人们借的神秘小说数量大.
(2)调查中用的是人们借书的频率,古典小说的读者看得比较慢,人们花得时间多,神秘小说人们当作消遣,阅读速度快,所以频率快.
3 喜欢古典小说的人很有可能自己买了书自己看,从图书馆中借的人少了.神秘小说人们只是随便看看,所以去图书馆借
4也可能是调查时间太长了,人们的阅读兴趣改变了.
结论:不能通过两次调查结果的差异说明第一次人们是在撒谎.
166. The following appeared in a local newspaper.
“People should not be misled by the advertising competition between Coldex and Cold-Away, both popular over-the-counter cold medications that anyone can purchase without a doctor’s prescription. Each brand is accusing the other of causing some well-known, unwanted side effect: Coldex is known to contribute to existing high blood pressure and Cold-Away is known to cause drowsiness. But the choice should be clear for most health-conscious people: Cold-Away has been on the market for much longer and is used by more hospitals than is Coldex. Clearly, Cold-Away is more effective.”
CA比C好:理由:CA 上市比较早,更多的医院使用.
1 上市比较早不一定就好,后上市的产品可能吸取了之前产品经验,疗效上更好.
2 医院使用多并不能说明这种药好,由于这种药是非处方药,医院的提供的选择不一定是最好的.这种药上市比较久,医院可能一直用的.
3 按照上面的说法,两种药都有副作用,人们应该根据自己的具体情况选择药品.
结论,不能仅仅以上市时间的早晚和使用的医院数目的多少来判断,人们要根据自己的情况自己选择.
178. The following appeared in the annual report from the president of the National Brush Company.
“In order to save money, we at the National Brush Company have decided to pay our employees for each brush they produce instead of for the time they spend producing brushes. We believe that this policy will lead to the production of more and better brushes, will allow us to reduce our staff size, and will enable the company factories to operate for fewer hours-resulting in savings on electricity and security costs. These changes will ensure that the best workers keep their jobs and that the company will earn a profit in the coming year.”
结论:我们要改计时为记件来提高工厂的效率
1 单纯用件数作为标准不能带来more and batter 的刷子,可能会造成人们为了造更多的刷子而使质量受到影响.另一方面工人对这种变化的反对和不适应可能让情况变得更加糟糕.
2 没有证据表明按件记工资的办法可以让工作效率提高,改变之后达到减少成本的效果.
3 最好的工人不一定就是最快的,好的工人的质量好,产量可能还比不上有些做的特别快但质量不是很好的.可能会造成好的工人的流失.
结论:单纯通过改变工资方式并不一定达到预期的目标,需要经过更多的调查找到更好的解决办法.
185. The following appeared in a letter from the owner of the Sunnyside Towers apartment building to its manager.
“One month ago, all the showerheads on the first five floors of Sunnyside Towers were modified to restrict the water flow to approximately 1/3 of its original force. Although actual readings of water usage before and after the adjustment are not yet available, the change will obviously result in a considerable savings for Sunnyside Corporation, since the corporation must pay for water each month. Except for a few complaints about low water pressure, no problems with showers have been reported since the adjustment. Clearly, restricting water flow throughout all the 20 floors of Sunnyside Towers will increase our profits further.”
论断：对20层的S塔楼限制水流，能够进一步提高我们的利润。
1 .调整后具体的用水指数还不知道,不能说明这样的办法可以节省下更多的成本,水压小了后人们用水的时间就长了,我们需要等到具体的用水指标出来以后才能做判断.
2 不同楼层的情况不一样.底层的水压要高,高层的水压要小,将20层的水压降低,会使高楼层的居民不满意.
3,不过人们已经开始投诉了,说明人们对这种做法是反对的，若住户不满意退房会减少很多收入。而且水费只是很小的开支，减少不一定能提高利润。
我们还需要更多的研究来通过这样一个决定,仓促的决定是不对的.
191. The following is a letter from a professor at Xanadu College to the college’s president.
"The development of an extensive computer-based long-distance learning program will enhance the reputation of Xanadu College. This program would allow more students to enroll in our courses, thereby increasing our income from student tuition. Traditional courses could easily be adapted for distance learners, as was shown by the adaptation of two traditional courses for our distance learning trial project last year. Also, by using computer programs and taped lectures, faculty will have fewer classroom obligations and more time to engage in extensive research, thereby enhancing the reputation of Xanadu."
1 没有证据说采用了计算机远程教学系统，就可以增加学生，提高学费收入。有多少学生接受这样的教学。学生选择学校的因素：师资，学费， 声誉。
2传统课程转成远程容易。首先没有证据说试点的两个课程很成功。其次，课程不一样,是不是所有的课程都适合改成远程的。
3 员工去教室少了，不代表他们就会去进行科研活动.而且科研活动的时间多，不一定有成效，不一定可以增加声誉。去教室少可能还会影响声誉。
4 可能会带来的负作用：学有共同学习的气氛，老师和学生没有互动。搞不好学校声誉会下降。
192. The following is a letter to the editor of the Roseville Gazette.
"Despite opposition from some residents of West Roseville, the arguments in favor of merging the township
s of Roseville and West Roseville are overwhelming. First, residents in both townships are confused about which authority to contact when they need a service; for example, the police department in Roseville receives many calls from residents of West Roseville. This sort of confusion would be eliminated with the merger. Second, the savings in administrative costs would be enormous, since services would no longer be duplicated: we would have only one fire chief, one tax department, one mayor, and so on. And no jobs in city government would be lost-employees could simply be reassigned. Most importantly, the merger will undoubtedly attract business investments as it did when the townships of Hamden and North Hamden merged ten years ago."
论断：尽管一些WR的居民反对，合并R和WR的好处还是占上风的。
1 理由不够,只是提供了警属电话,不具有代表性.需要更多的理由来说明.
2合并就可以减少开支? 合并以后仍然需要这么多人做这些事情,而且合并以后由于范围变大了,需要的管理人员更多了,而且服务质量也不一定得到保证.
3 十年前其他地方的经验不一定适合我们地区,情况不一样了,如果没有其他的措施,不一定就可以带来商贸投资.经济发展环境的因素可能更重要
结论:没有足够的证据表明合并能降低管理成本,应该继续讨论,寻找更好的解决办法,改名也可以的.
202. Humans arrived in the Kaliko Islands about 7,000 years ago, and within 3,000 years most of the large mammal species that had lived in the forests of the Kaliko Islands had become extinct. Yet humans cannot have been a factor in the species’ extinctions, because there is no evidence that the humans had any significant contact with the mammals. Further, archaeologists have discovered numerous sits where the bones of fish had been discarded, but they found no such areas containing the bones of large mammals, so the humans cannot have hunted the mammals. Therefore, some climate changes or other environmental factor must have caused the species’ extinctions.
论断：天气变化或其他环境因素导致了种类灭绝而不是人。
1 IC不是人类造成的,没有接触也可以造成灭绝
(1),破坏食物链,
(2)外来物种的进入打破了原来的平衡.
(3)带来了疾病造成了IC的灭绝.
2没有遗弃骨头的地方不代表人们不猎杀.人们只是把肉带回来了,或者把骨头也处理掉了.
3 不一定就是气候因素,生物的进化的不定向也是造成灭绝的可能原因.
需要更多的研究来找到CI灭亡的原因,人类的影响不能忽略,同时还有更多的因素需要考虑.
208. The following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an electric power company.
“Several recent surveys indicate that homeowners are increasingly eager to conserve energy and manufactures are now marketing many home appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners, that are almost twice as energy-efficient as those sold a decade ago. Also, new technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy needed for home heating. Therefore, we anticipate that the total demand for electricity in our area will not increase, and many decline slightly. Since our three electric generating plants in operation for the past 20 years have always met our needs, construction of new generation plants should not be necessary.”
论断：建新的电厂不需要。
1人们的期望不代表能愿意换新电器，这些电器可能很贵,旧的电器可能还要继续使用.
2随着城市的发展,用电量在不断的增加
1 工业用电的增加,地区里有了越来越多的工厂.商业的发展,写字楼的出现,也大大增加了用电量.
2 人口的不断增加,越来越多新的家庭,虽然每一个少了,但是人们有了更多的用电的设备.比如空调 电热水器,电脑.电器的普及.
3 充足的电力对投资者有吸引力,为了增加我们地区的竞争力我们需要更多的电力.
过去满足不等于现在满足,为了以后的发展考虑我们需要更进一步的调查.
210.The following is a letter to the editor of a news magazine.
“Clearly, the successful use of robots on missions to explore outer space in the past 20 years demonstrates that robots could be increasingly used to perform factory work more effectively, efficiently, and profitably than human factory workers. The use of robots in factories would offer several advantages. First, robots never get sick, so absenteeism would be reduced. Second, robots do not make mistakes, so factories would increase their output. Finally, the use of robots would also improve the morale of factory workers, since factory work can be so boring that many workers would be glad to shift to more interesting kinds of tasks.”
论断：机器人探索外空间在过去20年里的成功使用表明机器人在工厂里的更多使用能比工人更有好，更有效，利润更多。
(1) 有无适合用于工厂使用的机器人。外空间探索与工厂工作是两回事，软硬件要求都不一样。
(2) 机器人不生病但是会坏，机器人会出故障，不但停工还得花钱修。
(3) 不出错不代表速度快，可能效率低，产量不会增加。
(4) 不一定能提高士气。可能工作还是枯燥，而且有失业压力。
(5) 利润不一定上升。买机器人的钱，维修的钱。技术工人的钱等等。不是所以有的行业都适合。
217. The following appeared in a brochure promoting the purchase of local franchises for a national chain of gyms.
“Now is the time to invest in a franchise so that you can profit from opening one of our gyms in your town. Consider the current trends: Power-Lift Gyms are already popular among customers in 500 locations, and national surveys indicate increasing concern with weight loss and physical fitness. Furthermore, last year’s sales of books and magazines on personal health totaled more than $50 million, and purchases of home exercise equipment almost doubled. Investing now in a Power-Lift Gym franchise will guarantee a quick profit.”
论断：投资P的联锁经营权能保证很快营利。
1 人们关注减肥和健身不一定要去体育馆，书籍销量也不代表人们的关心程度。而且买家庭健身器具的人可能更倾向于在家里锻炼。
2 FA错误类比。引用的数据都是全国性质的,但是各地的情况不一样。当地的居民的锻炼习惯，当地的健身馆的数量。
3 前景好,竞争一定也很强烈,不一定能盈利，买器材，买特许权，请教练等的花费可能很高。不一定能吸引顾客。没有足够的证据表明P可以在竞争中取得成功
结论:虽然人们越来越多的关注各自的健康问题,并不说明P就一定能盈利,我们需要对市场进行更多的研究.
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