一些参数：
1.Excess Return Period (yrs)（超额回报期）：（这个的理解是指这个企业的竞争优势，根据1 – 5- 7 -10 的规则，大致是没有竞争优势，有一些行业品牌，强有力品牌，垄断企业。不过不知道这个数值从哪里得到的，如果是这个是valuepro的自己的，那我就没有什么办法复制了，不过现在先看看怎么算的吧。
The period of time that you believe that the company can earn an abnormally high rate of return. Default value is 10 years.
The free cash flow to the firm approach provides for several distinct time periods for estimating cash flow which allow differing value-creating periods for a corporation’s business strategy. In the Excess Return Period, because of a competitive advantage that the firm has, the corporation is able to earn returns on new investments that are greater than its cost of capital. Classic examples of companies that experienced a significant period of competitive advantage are IBM in the 1950’s and 1960’s, Apple Computer in the 1980’s, and Microsoft and Intel in the 1990’s.
Success invariably attracts competitors whose aggressive practices cut into market share and revenue growth rates, and whose pricing and marketing activities drive down net operating profit margins. A reduction in NOPM drives return on new investment to levels that approach the corporation’s WACC. When a company loses its competitive advantage and the return from its new investments just equals its WACC, the corporation is investing in business strategies in which the aggregate net present value is zero (or worse yet, negative—witness IBM in the 1980’s and Apple in the 1990’s).
The length of the Excess Return Period for the corporation will depend on the particular products being produced, the industry in which the company operates, and the barriers for competitors to enter the business. Products that have a very high barrier to entry due to patent protection, strong brand names, or unique marketing channels might have a long Excess Return Period (10 to 15 years or longer). The Excess Return Period for most companies is 5 to 7 years or shorter. All else equal, a shorter Excess Return Period results in a lower stock value.
What do you use as an input for the Excess Return Period? This is your judgment call when valuing a stock. We use what we call the 1-5-7-10 RULE.
1-5-7-10 RULE：
We group companies into one of four general categories and Excess Return Periods: (1) the boring companies that operate in a competitive, low-margin industry in which they have nothing particular going for them—a 1-year Excess Return Period;
(2) the decent companies that have a recognizable name and decent reputation and perhaps a regulatory benefit (e.g. Consolidated Edison)—a 5-year Excess Return Period;
(3) the large, economies of scale good companies with good brand names, marketing channels, and consumer identification (e.g. McDonald’s and AT&T)—a 7-year Excess Return Period; and
(4) the knock-em-dead great companies with tremendous marketing power, brand names, and in-place benefits (e.g. Intel, Microsoft, Coca Cola and Disney)—a 10-year Excess Return Period.
We do not believe in going out more than 10-years with an Excess Return Period. Some fundamental stock valuation models, like the dividend discount model, incorporate earnings and dividend growth in excess of the company’s WACC, out to an infinite time period. Cash flow in these models is discounted until the ‘hereafter’. We think that 10 years is a reasonable amount of time to incorporate the product cycles of today’s markets.
What happens after the Excess Return Period? Does the company dry up, die, or go bankrupt? NO! For valuation purposes, the company loses its competitive advantage. This loss of competitive advantage means that the company’s stock value will grow only at the market’s required rate of return for the stock. For example, if the common stock price of XYZ Boring Company (which does not pay dividends) is $20, and its required rate of return is 12%, its stockholders expect it to grow to ($20 * 1.12) = $22.40 after year 1, ($22.40 * 1.12) = $25.08 after year 2, and ($25.08 * 1.12) = $28.06 after year 3. After year 3, in this example, the company should pay all of its free cash flow to stockholders through dividends or share repurchases.
这个应该是按照企业的情况做调整的。
2Revenues ($mil)：企业收入 quote yahoo google ruter 中都有这些数据。Most recent trailing 12 months Operating Revenue of the company.
3 Growth Rate (%) 成长率 google的数据貌似比较好处理。The growth rate projected by analysts for Revenue growth over the Excess Return Period. If no analyst growth rates are available, then historic rates are used. Default value is 5%.
4 Net Oper. Profit Margin (%)
Net Operating Income divided by annual Operating Revenue.
5 Tax Rate (%)
Net Profit divided by annual Operating Revenue.
6 Stock Price ($)
Most recent stock price for company from our data source.
7 Shares Outstanding (mil)
Amount of shares outstanding from the most recent balance sheet of the company.
8 10-Yr Treasury Yield (%)
Yield associated with the 10-year Treasury Bond. Default value is 6.0%
9Bond Spread Treasury (%)
Interest rate spread that the debt of the company would have in excess of the interest rate on the 10-year Treasury Bond. Default value is 1.5%.
10 Preferred Stock Yield (%)
Approximate rate associated with preferred stock issued by the company that you are valuing. Default value is 8.5%.
11 Depreciation Rate (% of Rev)
Annual Depreciation amount divided by annual Operating Revenue.
12Investment Rate (% of Rev)
Annual Capital Expenditures amount divided by Operating Revenue.
Most recent((Accounts Receivable + Inventories) – Accounts Payable) divided by annual Operating Revenue.
14Short-Term Assets ($mil)
Total Current Assets from the most recent balance sheet statement of the company.
15 Short-Term Liab. ($mil)
Total Current Liabilities from the most recent balance sheet statement of the company + Deferred Taxes + Unfunded Pension Fund Liabilities.
The expected excess return a hypothetical average investor would require of a diversified portfolio of stock (assumed beta = 1.0) over the yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond. Default value is 3.0%.
A measure of risk of an individual stock. It measures volatility of return – a higher beta means a higher risk. Default value is 1.0.
18Value Debt Out. ($mil)
Amount of debt outstanding from the most recent balance sheet of the company. Default value is 0.
19Value Pref. Stock Out. ($mil)
Amount of preferred stock outstanding from the most recent balance sheet of the company. Default value is 0.
20Company WACC (%)
Weighted average cost of capital of the company, the discontinuing rate used in the DCF valuation procedures. Is calculated automatically by program. Can be changed in the Custom Valuation Screen.
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